by James Street

As of early January, our economy was officially out of what had seemed a never-ending recession. Many would have watched the countdown on the news, eagerly awaiting the excuse to get out the expensive champagne once again, but is the recession really over, as everyone has said?

The last quarter (October - December 2009) saw a small growth (but a growth nonetheless) of 0.1%, the first growth for 15 months. It was the longest recession since records have begun and the economy shrunk 4.8% in 2009, the most since 1921. We were clearly left behind many other countries, some arguing it was simply how hard we were hit, others that the recession was dealt with poorly by our government. Nonetheless, the severity of the recession is agreed by all, although whether we should be optimistic or pessimistic at the moment is disputed.

Experts had predicted a rise of 0.4%, so the growth which actually did happen would seem somewhat insignificant in comparison. Furthermore, unemployment could hit four million, the highest since the war. Also, past recoveries have been a ‘W’-shape, so there is a distinct possibility of a further decline before the economy ultimately recovers, as shown in the graph.

But this doesn’t mean we can’t be optimistic. All of the graphs show an improvement of the economy, and albeit negligible, it isn’t further decline. On top of this, house prices rose for 8 months of 2009, and inflation is still quite low, at about 0.5%, so we can still print some more money and the economy should continue fixing itself.

Hopefully our fears of the economy declining against shan’t be realised, but our country shall continue to grow, and become once again the prosperous and powerful land it once was.