With exams around the corner, it's easy to think GCSE's and A Levels are the only things to worry about in May. But for British politicians, it's the upcoming general elections that they'll be sweating about. If the EU Parliamentary Elections were anything to go by, Surrey is facing (in the words of Crispin Blunt) a very significant UKIP threat.

A longstanding MP for Banstead and Reigate, Mr Blunt has managed to hold a Conservative seat in the area for the past 18 years. Conservative strength in the borough hasn't been challenged since 1906, but things could be about to change. After the shock UKIP gain in Horley in 2014, and the tightly contested Conservative seats elsewhere in Surrey, times could be a-changing. Arguably general elections are very different to EU Parliamentary Elections, with the latter gaining an average turn out of 30% (and so unrepresentative) or being an oppurtunity for protest votes with the expectation that the results will not drastically affect the running of the nation. However, Mr Farage (no doubt buoyed by his party's success in 2014 and recent opinion polls, some of which predict UKIP's percentage of the votes will be as high as 20%) will be anticipating at least six times the (3%) vote they gained in 2010. This is a year for fresh hope for fringe parties with the Greens also predicting the only way is up after their poor 1% of the votes in 2010, with opinion polls giving them around 6% in recent weeks.

The loss of the Conservative seat in Horley is but one example of a sense of public disillusionement with the three main parties, and, if polls are anything to go by, there will be many more. Broken promises, over-centralisation and ignorance of issues outside the 'Westminster bubble' are often used as criticisms of modern British politics. Is it any wonder that Nigel Farage, who takes such pains to be seen as a 'man of the people' (through his many, many pub photo shoots and straight talking language) appeals more than the archetypal corrupt, expenses scandal embroiled, Conservative MP, even if the policies of the former are not particularly viable or beneficial for a multicultural Britain?

In Banstead Village, Chris Byrne of UKIP will be standing against Samuel Walsh, a Conservative who has held the seat for 9 years. A more clear cut indicator of public opinion couldn't be found in the area, with UKIP posing a potentially serious threat to a long-held Tory stronghold. Whether UKIP, the Green Party or Labour will overthrow Conservative strength in the borough in May is yet to be seen, but for now, it certainly seems as if the purple and yellow flag will continue to challenge Conservative influence.

 

Sophia Atkinson, Wallington Boys County Grammar School